Resources / Forestry

The forestry KPIs that compound over a rotation.

You plant once and harvest once a decade, so the returns are locked in by the small silvicultural calls made in between. A point of extra survival, a season of weed control, a millimetre of daily height: tracked over ten years, those are the levers that decide the crop.

Karri Ridge Estate
Compartment K7 · 42 haBlue gum · E. globulus1,100 stems/ha950 mm rainfall2016–2026 rotation
01 / Establishment & stand
Establishment 92%

Seedling survival

The share of planted seedlings that establish and hold through to canopy closure — the foundation every later metric is built on.

Target 90% 100% planted 92% plant yr 2 yr 10
Stocking retained vs planted
Stand 950 stems/ha

Stocking at harvest

Living stems standing per hectare at clearfall — how much of the planted density carried a merchantable stem to the mill.

Planted · 1,100 Established · 1,012 Harvest · 950 92% 86%
Stems/ha · planted → harvest
Growth 29 m · 2.1 m/yr

Height growth

Dominant top height by age — blue gum's headline growth trait, and the earliest read on site quality.

Site target 29 m K7 · 29 m District · 25 m yr 2 yr 8 yr 10
Top height by age · vs district
Quality 18% DBH CV

Stand uniformity

How evenly diameter is spread across the stand — a tight distribution means fewer suppressed stems and a cleaner harvest.

mean 19 cm 10 14 18 20 24 28
DBH distribution · cm
02 / Growth & yield
Yield 22 m³/ha/yr

Mean annual increment

Total standing volume divided by stand age — the single number the whole rotation is planned around, and the one that sets the harvest date.

Good site >20 22 K7 MAI District 17 yr 3 yr 8 yr 10
m³/ha/yr by age · vs district
Volume 220 m³/ha

Standing volume

Merchantable stem volume accumulated per hectare — the raw stock the harvest converts into green tonnes.

220 55 120 185 yr 4 yr 7 yr 10
m³/ha accumulated · to clearfall
Stocking 28 m²/ha

Basal area

Cross-sectional stem area per hectare — the density gauge that tells you whether the stand is fully using the site or crowding itself.

28 Full-site 25–30 Self-thin 32 0 40 m²/ha
vs full-site occupancy range
Cycle 10 yr

Rotation length

Where current annual growth falls back through the running average, mean increment culminates — the biologically optimal moment to clearfall.

culminate yr 10 MAI Current annual increment yr 2 yr 10 yr 14
MAI vs CAI · culmination age
Output 12% sawlog-grade

Production grading

How harvest volume splits across log grades — sawlog, pulpwood and residue. In a short-rotation pulp crop the premium sawlog fraction is small, and it sets the ceiling on long-term carbon storage.

12% sawlog Pulp / chip · 80% Sawlog / veneer · 12% Residue / bark · 8%
Harvest volume by log grade
03 / Health & risk
Disease 12% crown

Leaf disease defoliation

Crown lost to Mycosphaerella and Teratosphaeria leaf blight — blue gum's chief growth thief, worst in the wet establishment years.

Action >20% 22 17 13 12 yr 2 yr 4 yr 6 yr 8
% crown defoliation by age
Risk 0.8% / yr

Fire loss

Standing crop lost to wildfire each year across the estate — the tail risk that a decade of growth is exposed to right up to harvest.

Estate cap 1.5% 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.8 2023 2024 2025 2026
% crop burnt · estate · 4 yrs
Establishment 6% browsed

Browsing damage

Young seedlings browsed by kangaroos and wallabies in the first summer — controllable, and cheap to fix compared with a replant.

Replant risk 20% 6% 17% Managed Unbaited district
Seedlings browsed · yr 1
Climate Dec–Mar check

Summer growth check

The stall in stem growth through the hot, dry Mediterranean summer — deep-soil moisture is what carries the crop across it.

summer check Stem growth rate Jul Nov Feb Jun
Relative stem growth · by month
04 / Financial
Breakeven $34 / GMT

Cost of production

Everything it costs to put a green metric tonne on the mill weighbridge — your breakeven, independent of the export chip price.

$34 / GMT Harvest $12 Haulage $9 Silviculture $6 Roading $3 Overheads $4
Delivered cost per green tonne
Market $48 / GMT

Mill-door price

The blended price your green tonnes actually earn at the mill or chip terminal — margin per tonne starts against your breakeven.

Breakeven $34 $54 $38 $48 Export chip Domestic Blended
vs $34/GMT breakeven
Margin $448 / ha/yr

Gross margin per hectare

Rotation margin spread back across the years it took to grow — the annualised figure that lets forestry stand next to any other land use.

$448 $305 $356 $402 2011 crop 2021 K7
Annualised GM ÷ 42 ha · by crop
Return 8.5%

Internal rate of return

The discount rate at which the rotation's discounted costs and revenue break even — how forestry is judged against every other investment.

Hurdle 7% 7.2 6.2 7.1 8.5 2011 crop District Prev K7 K7 2026
% real IRR · vs hurdle rate
05 / Environment
Carbon 180 tCO₂e/ha

Carbon sequestration

Carbon dioxide locked into standing biomass and roots over the rotation — a co-product the crop banks every year it grows.

180 ≈18 tCO₂e/ha/yr avg yr 2 yr 6 yr 10
Cumulative tCO₂e/ha stored
Carbon 12% long-term

Carbon storage life

Where the carbon in the harvested wood ends up — locked into long-lived timber, or in pulp and paper that releases it within a few years. Grade decides the split.

12% locked long-term 12% 80% Long-term · sawn hardwood (decades) Short-term · pulp, chip, paper (1–3 yrs) Residue · bark & fines (near-term)
Harvested-wood carbon by storage life
Water 2.4 m³/ML

Water-use efficiency

Wood volume grown per megalitre of rainfall used — the true measure of productivity in a catchment where every tree draws on the water balance.

Top sites ~3.0 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2023 2024 2025 2026
m³ wood per ML rainfall · 4 yrs

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